I happened to glance at a U.S. research report on consumer behavior in shopping malls, and it honestly startled me a little.

A report by Cushman & Wakefield found that between 2010 and 2013, visits by Americans to shopping malls fell by as much as 50%, and it is projected to decline even further from now on.

With statistics like that, it is not surprising to read news about major American retail chains gradually closing down—for example Walmart shutting branches and laying off large numbers of employees, or Macy’s recently announcing the closure of 100 stores, following Sears.

If I had to guess, it would not be hard to guess why consumer behavior toward visiting shopping malls has changed so much.

That is right. The reason is e-commerce.

Why spend energy and fuel going to a shopping mall when you can order from home? Most importantly, you can often buy products at a lower price as well.

But if we look at the big picture at the macro level, the decline of shopping malls in America is not the most worrying thing, because in truth the money is still circulating within the country. The money may move from Walmart’s pocket to Amazon’s pocket, but it does not leave the country.

By contrast, if consumer behavior in Thailand follows the same path as in other countries and the number of people visiting shopping malls drops by 50%, I do not really want to imagine what would happen.

I do not have research figures to confirm this, but I think Thailand’s retail business is more interconnected with society than America’s. I am not looking only at the malls themselves, but also at the small stores inside them, restaurants, cinemas, banks, drink carts, lottery sellers, and many others.

The impact would likely be far broader than expected. The middle class would probably be hit the hardest—store employees, bank staff, SME merchants selling in and around malls, interior designers, and many more would almost certainly lose their jobs in large numbers.

What is most worrying is our domestic e-commerce sector, because day by day the signs become clearer that Thailand’s e-commerce business may be captured by foreign companies.

So the money will not simply move from one local pocket to another, as Walmart’s money moved to Amazon. Instead, it will flow from shopping malls owned by Thai people to e-commerce businesses owned by foreigners.

Put simply, the money will flow out of the country.

In truth, the major shopping malls in Thailand all know well that the e-commerce wave is definitely coming. Yet they remain hesitant. They do not dare fully commit resources to pushing their own e-commerce businesses, because promoting e-commerce themselves would in some sense reduce the number of people coming to their malls.

Because they kept hesitating, foreign businesses seized the opportunity and poured into the market, using start-up-style expansion, until our e-commerce sector was effectively invaded and taken over.

I do not want to jump to conclusions, but the chance that we will be able to compete with foreign e-commerce players seems painfully small.

How should we solve this? I believe the issue is too large for the private sector to fight alone. The public sector should step in to help and support Thai-owned e-commerce businesses so they can compete with foreign companies.

That said, I do not mean that the government should run e-commerce by itself—that would only make matters worse. Rather, the government should support the private sector, especially in the infrastructure needed for e-commerce. Even logistics alone is already a major issue.

"Just thinking out loud, if the Thai government could subsidize shipping costs for Thai-owned e-commerce businesses so that shipping were free, I think Thai e-commerce would become strong enough to compete."

I am simply thinking aloud, in case someone with power over this issue happens to read this article and gets a spark of an idea.

It is like the Thai national football team facing Japan—even if we know we cannot win, we still cheer them on.

Fight on, Thai e-commerce!